AI macro currency strength & forward outlook

cMind ships an AI-assisted, math-deterministic macro currency-strength engine. It ranks a configurable universe of currencies — the 8 majors plus emerging-market and exotic currencies — by current fundamental strength, and projects a forward directional outlook for every pair over a chosen horizon (1M / 3M / 6M / 12M). Every rank, every pair bias and every number is computed by pure deterministic math in the domain core; the LLM only gathers the forward-looking inputs the data can't publish and explains the result in plain English. It never invents a rank, a direction or a number.

Honest limitation. Fundamentals predict medium-to-long-term value well and short-term value poorly. Treat this as a positioning / confluence filter, not a short-term timing signal. Readings near high-impact releases (NFP/CPI/central-bank) are noisy. Not financial advice.

How it works

1. Current fundamentals come from the Economic Calendar, not the LLM. The hard numbers — policy rates, CPI vs target, GDP, employment, trade balance — and their surprise z-scores are sourced point-in-time from the economic calendar module (FRED/BLS/BEA/ECB and central-bank schedules). A historical snapshot never leaks look-ahead.
2. The LLM gathers only what the calendar can't publish — per currency: the forward trajectory (expected policy-rate path in bp, inflation-trend-vs-target, growth momentum) and a geopolitical outlook (risk-on/off, tariffs, fiscal/debt, elections), plus any EM/exotic current figures the calendar lacks. Strict JSON, tier-aware validation, web search on.
3. The domain computes the ranking and the forward matrix deterministically. Each driver is scored as a within-tier z-score (so a 50%-inflation exotic never distorts the majors), winsorized, weight-summed into a composite, and ranked strongest→weakest with a stable ISO tie-break. The forward layer carries each composite along its trajectory — projected = current + horizonScale · Σ trajectoryDriver·weight — and maps each pair's projected differential to a directional bias (▲ appreciate / ▬ neutral / ▼ depreciate) with a conviction.
4. The LLM explains the ranking and the top pair calls in plain language.

The drivers

Driver	Effect on strength	Notes
Policy rate & trajectory	Higher / hawkish ⇒ stronger	Highest weight; central-bank divergence drives the biggest gaps.
Inflation (CPI vs target)	Above target ⇒ weaker	Scored inversely (purchasing-power drag).
GDP growth	Higher relative growth ⇒ stronger	Differential vs the panel.
Employment	Stronger labour ⇒ stronger	Feeds the policy path.
Trade balance / current account	Surplus ⇒ stronger	Structural demand.
Policy stance	Hawkish ⇒ stronger	The primary long-term driver.
Surprise momentum	Recent beats ⇒ stronger	From the calendar's surprise z-scores.
Geopolitical / risk	Risk-off ⇒ safe havens (USD/JPY/CHF) stronger	Bounded forward risk delta.
Real yield / carry (EM/exotic)	Positive real rate ⇒ stronger	Dominant EM driver in calm regimes.
External vulnerability (EM/exotic)	Deficits / low reserves / USD debt ⇒ weaker	Structural depreciation pressure.
Terms of trade (commodity exporters)	Rising export prices ⇒ stronger	BRL, ZAR, CLP, NOK, AUD, CAD.
Political / institutional risk (EM/exotic)	Instability ⇒ weaker	Wider dead-band, capped conviction.

Tiered universe (majors + EM + exotics)

The universe is deployment-configurable (App:CurrencyStrength:Universe) — adding a currency is config, not code. Each currency carries a tier (Major / EmergingMarket / Exotic) that tunes weighting, dead-band width and conviction cap:

• Majors — USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF (rate-level led).
• Emerging markets — CNH, INR, BRL, MXN, ZAR, KRW, SGD, PLN (+ Scandi NOK/SEK); carry + risk + external-vulnerability weighted up, medium confidence.
• Exotics — TRY, HUF, CZK, plus USD-pegged HKD/SAR; low confidence, wider dead-band, capped conviction. Pegged / heavily-managed currencies (HKD, SAR, CNH) are flagged, their trajectory is down-weighted, and their pair outlook is clamped toward Neutral so a peg is never read as a free-floating signal.

Because official EM/exotic stats are lower-frequency, revised and sometimes opaque, the AI-gathered figures carry a per-tier confidence shown as a reliability badge.

Graceful degradation

Calendar	AI	Result
✅	✅	Full ranking + forward projection + narrative (CalendarAndAi).
✅	❌	Calendar-only current ranking, no forward projection (CalendarOnly).
❌	✅	AI-gathered current figures + forward, lower confidence (AiOnly).
❌	❌	No snapshot — the widget hides and the page shows an empty state.

The app runs unchanged either way. AI is gated on the AI key; the calendar leg respects its own white-label gate + runtime toggle.

Using it

• Enable AI (Settings → AI) and turn on the widget from your own dashboard Customize dialog ("Currency strength" — opt-in, hidden by default). The widget shows the top strong/weak currencies and the top 3M pair call; it links to the full page.
• Full page — /ai/currency-strength: a horizon selector (1M/3M/6M/12M), a tier filter (All/Majors/EM/Exotics), the current ranking, the forward forecast, the pair-outlook matrix (bias + conviction, pegged/low-confidence flagged), and the AI narrative. Press Refresh now (owner) to regenerate. A background worker (App:CurrencyStrength:RefreshEnabled, default true) refreshes on a schedule so the page is populated out of the box; a deployment or the owner turns it off (or disables the AI / economic-calendar feature, which the refresher honours by degrading to no snapshot).

Programmatic access

One shared read model (ICurrencyStrengthQuery) is reachable three ways:

• In-app AI — injected directly (in-process) into AI features.
• MCP — the currency_strength tool (params horizon, tier) for AI clients/agents.
• cBot REST — GET /api/market/v1/currency-strength/{latest,history,pair/{base}/{quote}}, secured by the same CalendarJwt machinery as the calendar cBot API with an added market:read scope. A cBot registers an API client with market:read, exchanges its id + secret for a short-lived JWT at POST /api/calendar/v1/token, and calls the endpoints with a Bearer token. No second JWT scheme, no second secret — a leaked token is read-only, market-scoped, short-lived and revocable.

See the calendar cBot API for the token flow and a copy-paste sample.