AI macro currency strength & forward outlook
cMind mengirim AI-assisted, math-deterministic macro currency-strength engine. Ini merangking configurable universe dari currencies — 8 majors ditambah emerging-market dan exotic currencies — oleh current fundamental strength, dan projects forward directional outlook untuk setiap pair di atas chosen horizon (1M / 3M / 6M / 12M). Setiap rank, setiap pair bias dan setiap number dihitung oleh pure deterministic math dalam domain core; LLM hanya gathers forward-looking inputs yang data tidak dapat publish dan explains result dalam plain English. Ini tidak pernah invents rank, direction atau number.
Honest limitation. Fundamentals memprediksi medium-to-long-term value well dan short-term value poorly. Treat ini sebagai positioning / confluence filter, bukan short-term timing signal. Readings dekat high-impact releases (NFP/CPI/central-bank) adalah noisy. Bukan financial advice.
Bagaimana cara kerjanya
- Current fundamentals datang dari Economic Calendar, bukan LLM. Hard numbers — policy rates, CPI vs target, GDP, employment, trade balance — dan their surprise z-scores disumber point-in-time dari economic calendar module (FRED/BLS/BEA/ECB dan central-bank schedules). Historical snapshot tidak pernah leak look-ahead.
- LLM hanya gathers apa yang calendar tidak dapat publish — per currency: forward trajectory (expected policy-rate path dalam bp, inflation-trend-vs-target, growth momentum) dan geopolitical outlook (risk-on/off, tariffs, fiscal/debt, elections), ditambah any EM/exotic current figures yang calendar lacks. Strict JSON, tier-aware validation, web search on.
- Domain computes ranking dan forward matrix secara deterministic. Setiap driver diskor
sebagai within-tier z-score (jadi 50%-inflation exotic tidak pernah distort majors), winsorized,
weight-summed ke composite, dan ranked strongest→weakest dengan stable ISO tie-break. Forward layer
carries setiap composite sepanjang its trajectory —
projected = current + horizonScale · Σ trajectoryDriver·weight— dan maps setiap pair's projected differential ke directional bias (▲ appreciate / ▬ neutral / ▼ depreciate) dengan conviction. - LLM explains ranking dan top pair calls dalam plain language.
Drivers
| Driver | Effect pada strength | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate & trajectory | Higher / hawkish ⇒ stronger | Highest weight; central-bank divergence drives biggest gaps. |
| Inflation (CPI vs target) | Atas target ⇒ weaker | Scored inversely (purchasing-power drag). |
| GDP growth | Higher relative growth ⇒ stronger | Differential vs panel. |
| Employment | Stronger labour ⇒ stronger | Feeds policy path. |
| Trade balance / current account | Surplus ⇒ stronger | Structural demand. |
| Policy stance | Hawkish ⇒ stronger | Primary long-term driver. |
| Surprise momentum | Recent beats ⇒ stronger | Dari calendar's surprise z-scores. |
| Geopolitical / risk | Risk-off ⇒ safe havens (USD/JPY/CHF) stronger | Bounded forward risk delta. |
| Real yield / carry (EM/exotic) | Positive real rate ⇒ stronger | Dominant EM driver dalam calm regimes. |
| External vulnerability (EM/exotic) | Deficits / low reserves / USD debt ⇒ weaker | Structural depreciation pressure. |
| Terms of trade (commodity exporters) | Rising export prices ⇒ stronger | BRL, ZAR, CLP, NOK, AUD, CAD. |
| Political / institutional risk (EM/exotic) | Instability ⇒ weaker | Wider dead-band, capped conviction. |
Tiered universe (majors + EM + exotics)
Universe adalah deployment-configurable (App:CurrencyStrength:Universe) — menambahkan currency adalah
config, tidak code. Setiap currency membawa tier (Major / EmergingMarket / Exotic) yang tunes
weighting, dead-band width dan conviction cap:
- Majors — USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF (rate-level led).
- Emerging markets — CNH, INR, BRL, MXN, ZAR, KRW, SGD, PLN (+ Scandi NOK/SEK); carry + risk + external-vulnerability weighted up, medium confidence.
- Exotics — TRY, HUF, CZK, ditambah USD-pegged HKD/SAR; low confidence, wider dead-band, capped
conviction. Pegged / heavily-managed currencies (HKD, SAR, CNH) adalah flagged, their trajectory adalah
down-weighted, dan their pair outlook adalah clamped menuju
Neutraljadi peg tidak pernah dibaca sebagai free-floating signal.
Karena official EM/exotic stats adalah lower-frequency, revised dan kadang opaque, AI-gathered figures membawa per-tier confidence ditampilkan sebagai reliability badge.
Graceful degradation
| Calendar | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ | ✅ | Full ranking + forward projection + narrative (CalendarAndAi). |
| ✅ | ❌ | Calendar-only current ranking, tidak ada forward projection (CalendarOnly). |
| ❌ | ✅ | AI-gathered current figures + forward, lower confidence (AiOnly). |
| ❌ | ❌ | Tidak ada snapshot — widget hides dan page menunjukkan empty state. |
App berjalan unchanged baik caranya. AI adalah gated pada AI key; calendar leg menghormati its own white-label gate + runtime toggle.
Menggunakannya
- Enable AI (Settings → AI) dan turn on widget dari your own dashboard Customize dialog ("Currency strength" — opt-in, hidden by default). Widget menampilkan top strong/weak currencies dan top 3M pair call; links ke full page.
- Full page —
/ai/currency-strength: horizon selector (1M/3M/6M/12M), tier filter (All/Majors/EM/Exotics), current ranking, forward forecast, pair-outlook matrix (bias + conviction, pegged/low-confidence flagged), dan AI narrative. Press Refresh now (owner) untuk regenerate. Background worker (App:CurrencyStrength:RefreshEnabled, defaulttrue) refreshes pada schedule jadi page adalah populated out of the box; deployment atau owner turns itu off (atau disables AI / economic-calendar feature, yang refresher honors oleh degrading ke tidak ada snapshot).
Programmatic access
Satu shared read model (ICurrencyStrengthQuery) adalah reachable tiga ways:
- In-app AI — injected directly (in-process) ke AI features.
- MCP —
currency_strengthtool (paramshorizon,tier) untuk AI clients/agents. - cBot REST —
GET /api/market/v1/currency-strength/{latest,history,pair/{base}/{quote}}, secured oleh sameCalendarJwtmachinery sebagai calendar cBot API dengan addedmarket:readscope. CBot registers API client denganmarket:read, exchanges its id + secret untuk short-lived JWT diPOST /api/calendar/v1/token, dan calls endpoints denganBearertoken. Tidak ada second JWT scheme, tidak ada second secret — leaked token adalah read-only, market-scoped, short-lived dan revocable.
Lihat calendar cBot API untuk token flow dan copy-paste sample.